Will Turkey and Greece fight a war over East Mediterranean gas?

 

In early October the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, threatened Turkey with sanctions if the latter continued to take “unilateral action” in the Eastern Mediterranean. The Commission does not move fast and so Turkey’s behaviour between now and the end of the year will receive a leisurely review, probably by March 2021.

The unilateral actions which prompted the President’s threat were inspired by four complex and interrelated Turkish problems, two of which turn on the very likely presence of large gas reserves in Turkey’s southern littoral. The third problem is ownership of improbable marine resources in the Aegean (well explored, fished out long ago and of little commercial value), while the last one is not an energy problem at all, but is no less painful for Turkey. All four problems are governed by International Law, and that is a good place to start.

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