Is the oil going to deplete for real? Or is this just an assumption?

T. James Hanaburgh, student of the oil economy and its impact on environment & geopolitics

Answered 11d ago

Mostly, we have to hope that advances in technology will support the upcoming changes in reserves of conventional and non-conventional oil resources.

Conventional oil reserves/resources are limited, and few new discoveries are being made.

Most new oil discoveries are unconventional resources - oil shale, shale oil, kerogen deposits, oil sands, etc, and they are more difficult to extract & refine economically. Conventional oil resources are generally much cheaper and easier to extract and refine.

While there are still significant conventional oil reserves in many countries, these are mainly OPEC nations who tightly monitor and control production in order to maximize profits and maintain a stable market.

World oil consumption can and will eventually outstrip the conventional resources. If sufficient technology is developed with which to extract and refine unconventional oil resources, then there is little to worry about up through this next century, given that improvements in fuel efficiency and conservation advance at a similar pace.

However, if the developing world begins to consume oil at rates approaching that of the United States or even Europe, we will see market instability, rising prices, and rapidly dwindling oil resources.

I cannot rightfully put a projection or prediction as to how quickly those resources will be consumed, but the developing world has been currently (over the last 8–10 years) increasing oil consumption by about 3%-4% per year. At that rate, assuming those consumption increases continue unchecked by market forces, no matter what advanced economies do, the world could consume up to 9 trillion barrels in the next 70 or 80 years.

Current oil reserves (including both conventional and unconventional oil) in the entire world amount to less than 2 trillion barrels.

Of course, “proven reserves” are only a small fraction of known oil resources — there may be up to 11 trillion barrels of oil resources that fall outside of what we can consider “proven reserves” in that these remaining resources cannot currently be extracted with today's technology at a price that is viable for business.

We will see if technology and the market can sustain future consumption rates.

https://www.quora.com/Is-the-oil-going-to-deplete-for-real-Or-is-this-just-an-assumption